Olivia Seifert
When the Covid-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, drinking habits shifted significantly for many. But what happens when those pandemic-era drinking habits stick around?
Long-term impact of changes in drinking behaviours
Recent research from HealthLumen explores the long-term consequences of changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic, and the findings are stark: if those patterns continue until the end of 2035, England could face nearly 10,000 additional premature deaths, over 147,000 excess cases of disease, and £1.2 billion extra in healthcare costs associated with nine of the most prevalent alcohol-related diseases selected for study (Box 1).
Breast cancer
Colorectal cancer
Liver cancer
Mouth cancer
Oesophageal cancer
Throat cancer
Hypertension
Liver cirrhosis
Stroke
Box 1: The nine alcohol-related diseases included for analysis in the study
Such long-term impacts are expected to disproportionately harm the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups, who are projected to see a 9.5% rise in alcohol-related disease cases and a 36% increase in premature mortality compared to their more affluent counterparts.
What if drinking pattern changes are not so long-term?
This modelling study projected the health and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption from the pandemic under two further scenarios:
In both of these scenarios, as with the long-term scenario, the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups were expected to be disproportionately affected by the changes in alcohol consumption trends.
Inequalities deepened by alcohol harm
What stands out in this research is the stark disparity between the projected impact of Covid-19 lockdown alcohol consumption trends across different socioeconomic groups, which indicate that health inequalities are expected to widen even if changes in consumption patterns were short-lived after the pandemic. This mirrors existing evidence that more deprived communities experience higher rates of alcohol-related harm.
Preventing a public health crisis
The good news is that these projections are not set in stone. The nine alcohol-related diseases included in this study are all chronic non-communicable diseases that develop over many years, meaning that the increases in alcohol harm projected are not inevitable and, with timely, evidence-based interventions, these harms can be mitigated – or even prevented entirely.
This modelling study underscores the value in implementing policies that address excessive alcohol consumption behaviours. Strategies such as pricing interventions or improved access to addiction services for example could help to curb the long-term impact of pandemic-era drinking habits.
The power of modelling: Connecting behaviours, inequalities and public health to better shape interventions
This research underscores the interconnectedness between individual behaviours, sociodemographic factors, and public health. It is also a powerful reminder of the value of modelling in predicting future outcomes and shaping effective interventions.
This study used microsimulation modelling, a sophisticated modelling technique that uses virtual populations that can mimic the changing behaviours of individuals within a real population of interest to produce robust projections of different ‘what-if’ scenarios.
At HealthLumen, we’re committed to helping policymakers, healthcare organisations, and industry stakeholders understand and address the long-term effects of public health challenges.
To learn more about the results of this research, read the full publication here.
For any questions regarding this work, or how HealthLumen can help to model the impact of your intervention or therapy, contact us today.